A college coach once told me that 95% of the recruits that contact him aren’t talented enough for his program. His goal was to win a national championship, so it made sense that only 1 in 20 might have a chance at helping his team do that.
For him, the bar is set high. It’s so high that he has to regularly turn down excellent recruits. He spends inordinate amounts of time on the road looking for the best players.
That sort of goal isn’t possible for everyone, and it might not even be desirable. The time and stress it takes might not be worth it in the end.
But it’s a good rule of thumb to assume that 95% of your success is going to come from that sort of initiative.